The time has come for the Congress party to take a decision. In particular, this is for Y S Jagan and the recent developments due to his ‘Odarpu Yatra’ seem to have brought him at a crossroad wherein a crucial decision needs to be taken. So, what are the chances for Jagan and what would be the outcome of the choices he makes. Here is a synopsis of possibilities that can arise should Jagan decide to walk out or stay in the Congress party.
* If he stays back in party, he will never get the chance for MLA as that would increase his prospects for becoming CM. So, the best that they would give only be an MP seat which would not serve him good.
* The chances of his presence getting diluted just like Marri Shashidhar Reddy and eventually getting isolated exists.
* Given the glory that he had during his father’s regime, living under a submissive manner subject to the discretion of the High command would be something hard to digest for him.
* The stand he has taken towards the Telangana issue has given him resistance from the T- Congress leaders so winning their confidence is ruled out.
* If Jagan had moved out of the party during his father’s death many would have been keen to follow him but now that heat is gone.
* Jagan would require double efforts to gain the support of the people and the party members if he moves out now but the fear of high command will restrict many from supporting him.
Benefits for Jagan:
* Some of them are suggesting that moving out before 2014 elections is the right time and before that he should gain strong public support.
* If he comes up with special initiatives towards public welfare during this time, it will retain his father’s legacy and the impact will be quite strong.
* There was a gossip that pressure might be built on Jagan by conducting IT raids but the fact is that he is beyond IT raids. If that happens, given his strong presence in the media, he can use it to gain sympathy and mileage.
* Right now, if he compels the High Command to take action against him, he would have the edge to use it against the Congress party.
* If Jagan makes a move now, the focus will shift towards this political situation and this would mean that the Telangana issue will be buried for a long time. Indirectly, Jagan would have succeeded in his ‘Samaikyandhra’ mission.
* The factors of loyalty towards YSR and Jagan are somewhat better right now in the Congress camp and if Jagan can nurture it for some more time, this will help generate further strength to his camp.
In view of the above, Jagan’s every single decision from now onwards will decide his future for the coming few years and it would also shape his political graph. Let us see what happens…
